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Perhaps a puddle of a certain size will evaporate down to half its original volume in one day.But on the second day, there is no reason to expect that one-quarter of the puddle will remain; in fact, it will probably be much less than that.There are various simple exercises that demonstrate probabilistic decay, for example involving flipping coins or running a statistical computer program.The decay of many physical quantities is not exponential—for example, the evaporation of water from a puddle, or (often) the chemical reaction of a molecule.For example, if there is just one radioactive atom, and its half-life is one second, there will not be "half of an atom" left after one second.

However, unlike in an exponential decay, the half-life depends on the initial quantity, and the prospective half-life will change over time as the quantity decays.The accompanying table shows the reduction of a quantity as a function of the number of half-lives elapsed.Simulation of many identical atoms undergoing radioactive decay, starting with either 4 atoms per box (left) or 400 (right).Note that after one half-life there are not exactly one-half of the atoms remaining, only approximately, because of the random variation in the process.Nevertheless, when there are many identical atoms decaying (right boxes), the law of large numbers suggests that it is a very good approximation to say that half of the atoms remain after one half-life. I really hope to meet somebody out of this f**king business,” she said.

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